Discover 3 Frequently Discussed Scenarios That Are Appearing During The Crypto Bull Run This Year!
The crypto market is currently filled with an extreme level of fear and panic at the moment!
Many investors have been chased out of the market and are left wondering…is the bull run really over?
The answer to that question depends on who you’re asking.
Crypto Twitter, YouTube & Tik Tok has become an echo chamber of moon bois who will ratio you any chance they get for having the audacity to look at any option that isn’t a v-shaped bullish recovery.
In reality however, while there is strong evidence that the bull run will continue, we must take into account every scenario and be prepared for the worst but aspire for the best!
Scenario 1: V-shaped recover back on track to end the bull run in Q4 2021
This is the most bullish scenario, as many people expect the 2021 bull run to follow in the same fashion as the 2017 bull run which had a similar bear trap period around the 6 month mark of the bull run and immediately bounced back less than 2 ½ months later to continue its epic run to just under $20,000 USD per BTC
For this to happen we have to completely blast past the 20 week EMA and 90 day MA for this to occur. It is very much possible, but is it likely?
In my personal opinion the answer is no, it’s an odds game and the likelihood of this occurring on a technical level just simply doesn’t add up considering that those moving averages are strong forms of resistance, it won’t be easy to break.
This bull run is mimicking the 2013 run more than the 2017 run, where the market saw a complete blow off the top halfway through the run, dumped and began a second leg up for a double top.
The good news is, anything can happen in crypto, I would love to be wrong about this and see Bitcoin absolutely smash through these key resistance levels, but looking at this with a logical lens it doesn’t add up.
Scenario 2: Fake bear market leading to an extended bull run into Q1/Q2 2022
While it would suck to see crypto trade sideways for the summer, history indicates that the ROI in the summer time is typically not the best as BTC and ETH typically chop sideways during these months.
During this time many skeptics and people with paper hands will likely fall for the bear trap and put crypto out for the count. When in reality this is just another great accumulation period.
Considering all the FUD we have seen from the likes of Elon Musk, China and other news sources who are most likely looking to get their buddies in on some cheap discounted BTC, this is when those individuals can get in before the final leg up going into Q1/Q2 2022 as we see an extended run
Personally this is more of the scenario I agree with considering that it won’t be easy to get to $100K BTC and that the time it will take to break the 90 day moving average & 200 day exponential moving average, which are strong resistance points.
While this is not the best news for BTC it could be a good thing for DeFi, maybe another DeFi Summer 2.0?
Scenario 3: It’s Over
The ultimate worst case scenario, which isn’t out of play just yet. Considering that BTC was ahead of schedule in terms of being overextended from it’s major support levels it would only be fair to assume that this harsh drop could be the final ride.
While I personally don’t believe this scenario is likely, it would be inappropriate to not account for this possibility.
We will only find out as time goes on but the likelihood of BTC crashing into a bear market is pretty low, as history indicates that we were due for a correction at some point. The market was very hot at the time.
Remember at the end of the day while the majority of traders lose most of the trades, long term investors never lose. Whichever one of these scenarios plays out, as long as you have skin in the game long term you will be successful!
Buckle up, prepare for lift off to the moon!
Make sure to ask me any questions you like you can find me on social media
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